Posted by
Bill Lewis on Tuesday, October 03, 2006 5:04:20 PM
Is the war in Iraq going well or badly? That seems to depend on who is doing the observing. I'd like to play devil's advocate and in so doing ask a few questions:
Let us suppose the war is going badly and we decide to cut our losses and pull out. Speculate on the future of Iraq and the Middle East if tomorrow no Americans were there.
My sense is this: In very short order Iran would take over Iraq, either directly by invasion or by proxy via Shia militas and proxy leaders. I could also see Syria jumping into the fray, expanding the effectiveness of the Iran/Syria/Hezbollah triad.
If we leave Iraq could this happen? What would prevent it?
Carrying this scenario along, what happens next? If Islamic radicals were in charge of a large piece of that region, how long would it take for radical control of more the region to take place? What would happen, say in Kuwait? Saudi Arabia? Jordan? It seems to me that radicals might likely become Hitler-like, and move to expand their territorial control.
If we leave Iraq could this happen? What would prevent it?
Suppose as part of an expansion, they now decided to play with oil prices. Some of these countries have the largest oil reserves in the world. Saudi Arabia:264 billion barrels, Iran: 132 billion, Iraq: 115 billion, and Kuwait:101 billion. Almost half of the planet's known oil reserves in four countries in the same region. If radicals controlled this resource, they could plunge the US and indeed the world economy into chaos simply by turning off the pumps for a few months.
If we leave Iraq could this happen? What would prevent it?
It is difficult seeing the war in Iraq slog on day after day, with no apparent end. It is horrific watching our young men and women being killed and wounded with no visible expectation of resolution.It is easy to be critical of our reasons for getting involved in Iraq. Historians will investigate this in the decades of the future. But today, rightly or wrongly, we are there. Our focus must be on finding a way to win. Pulling out only leaves us in a far worse place.